That the global trade volume of goods will maintain positive growth in the second and third quarters of 2024

World Trade Organization: Global goods trade maintains recovery trend in the third quarter
The latest issue of the “Goods Trade Barometer” released by the World Trade Organization shows that the global goods trade sentiment index is 103, higher than the benchmark point of 100 and slightly higher than the 100.6 released in March this year. This index indicates that the global trade volume of goods will maintain positive growth in the second and third quarters of 2024.

Among the various component indices, the automobile product index is 103.3, the container transportation index is 104.3, the air freight index is 107.1, and the export order index is 101.2, all of which are above the trend level. The electronic component index is 95.4 and the raw material index is 99.3, both below the trend level.

The report states that the global trade volume of goods in the first quarter of 2024 increased by 1.4% year-on-year and 1.0% month on month. Recent data shows that trade growth in the European region is weaker than expected, while trade growth in other regions is stronger than expected.

The report suggests that despite positive signals from the barometer index, the global trade outlook remains highly uncertain due to increased geopolitical risks, ongoing regional conflicts, shifts in monetary policies in developed economies, and reduced export orders.

According to the compilation rules of the Global Goods Trade Prosperity Index, the value of 100 is its benchmark. If a certain index is 100, it means that the growth of global goods trade is in line with the expected medium-term trend. An index greater than 100 indicates a higher than expected growth in global goods trade for the quarter, while a negative index indicates a lower than expected growth in global goods trade.

The World Trade Organization first released the Global Trade Sentiment Index in July 2016, which collects trade statistics from major economies to provide early signals on the short-term development trend of world trade and provide more timely international trade information for trade policy makers and the business community.